📈 MARKETS · SpaceX IPO ANALYSIS

SpaceX's First Day: +19% and Past $2 Trillion

On June 12, SpaceX debuted on the Nasdaq as SPCX. Priced at $135, it raised about $75 billion — the largest IPO ever — and closed its first session at $160.95 (+19%), vaulting past a $2 trillion market cap. Here is the day-1 price action, market cap, valuation, and outlook, by the numbers. (As of the first trading day's close.)

Jun 13, 20269 minFirst trading day close · Jun 13, 2026
$160.95
Day-1 close (+19%)
$135
IPO price
$750억
Raised · largest IPO ever
$2조+
Day-1 close market cap
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Day-1 price action

IPO price$135Baseline · ~$75B raised
Open$150+11% over the offer price
Intraday high≈ +30%Briefly ~$2.25T market value
Close$160.95+19% over offer, market cap above $2T

Market cap — instantly among the world's largest

At the $135 offer price the company started near a $1.77 trillion cap, but the 19% first-day gain pushed it past $2 trillion (it briefly touched ~$2.25T at the intraday +30% peak). On day one it joined the ranks of the most valuable listed companies on Earth.

The roughly $75 billion raised stands as the largest IPO on record. On the back of his stake's value, Elon Musk was reported to have become the world's first trillionaire.

Valuation, dissected — what justifies $2 trillion

SpaceX's 2025 total revenue is estimated near $18.6 billion. Of that, Starlink contributed $11.4 billion61% of the total and up 48% from $7.7B in 2024. Starlink also produced $4.4 billion in operating profit, making it effectively the company's only profit engine (the broader company posts a GAAP loss). By February 2026 Starlink had surpassed 10 million subscribers across 160 countries.

The catch is the multiple. A $1.8T valuation is roughly 60–96× 2025 revenue (price-to-sales) — a level that dwarfs even the priciest megacap tech and already prices in growth no company in history has achieved. In other words, the stock isn't pricing current results; it's betting that Starlink, Starship, and space infrastructure compound explosively for years.

Bull vs bear — a split outlook

Bull

  • Starlink's de facto satellite-broadband dominance + 10M subscribers
  • Starship, once operational, collapses launch cost → new markets
  • Synergy with Musk's wider stack (xAI and others)
  • In this scenario, $2T+ can be justified

Bear

  • Morningstar: "significantly overvalued," with chances to buy cheaper after the IPO — fair value set below half the offer target
  • A ~60× P/S risks a sharp multiple reset if growth disappoints
  • 2026 trading range seen at $75–$200, with a bear floor near $75
  • Company-wide GAAP loss — profit is concentrated in Starlink

The lock-up — the key driver of early volatility

Rather than the usual single 180-day cliff, SpaceX chose a staggered structure. After Q2 earnings (Jul–Aug), up to 20% of insider shares unlock (plus 10% more if the stock is 30%+ above $135), and another 7% frees up at each of the 70/90/105/120/135-day marks post-IPO. All shares unlock at 180 days.

Notably, Musk himself is under the full lock-up and cannot use the early-release windows. The staggered design spreads out the selling pressure that usually bunches at the 180-day mark, but it can paradoxically raise volatility early in the stock's public life. The first unlock and the first quarterly print this summer are the early stock's first real tests.

Bottom line

The debut was spectacular, but from here it's a tug-of-war between delivering growth and normalizing the multiple. Near term, three things likely dominate: (1) the staggered lock-up unlocks, (2) the first quarterly results in Jul–Aug, and (3) the market re-rating that ~60× P/S. If Starlink subscribers and revenue keep beating expectations and Starship progress becomes visible, the bull case gains; if growth cools even for a quarter, the bears' "$75 floor" gets summoned fast.

In one line: SPCX is pricing belief in the future, not current earnings. Whether that belief is validated by quarterly results is what the next six months — to the 180-day lock-up expiry — will decide.