Japan: The Quiet Powerhouse That Set Down the Spotlight and Holds the Parts
The country that walked first stepped back from the stage, still holding the costliest parts. A look inside that paradox.
The Paradox of the Country That Went First
At the close of Part 5 we said that beneath the American legion lies a weakness, the components across the ocean. The first stage across that ocean is Japan. Yet look into Japan and you soon meet a curious paradox, for the country that first showed the world the very concept of the humanoid, and was once its synonym through ASIMO, as we saw in Part 1, seems to have stepped back from today's flashy contest of finished products.
But the phrase "seems to have stepped back" holds a trap. It may have set down the leading role on the stage, but behind the stage, the costliest parts that move the bodies of every actor are still in Japan's hands. This part looks at both faces of that quiet powerhouse: the finished products that appear to have retreated, and the components that remain as firm as ever.
A Retreat by the One Who Led?
Let us begin with the visible scenery. ASIMO, which represented Japan, had its standalone development wound down in 2018, as we saw in Part 1, and left the stage after a final demonstration in 2022. It was the graceful exit of a robot that symbolized an era, but at the same time it looked like a scene of Japan withdrawing from the front line of the finished-humanoid race.
Of course, Japanese firms have not let go. Toyota has steadily experimented with robots that help people through its research arm; Kawasaki has shown its own bipedal machine; and SoftBank once drew attention with Pepper, an emotion-reading robot. Yet none of them put forward, front and center, the aggressive slogans of "mass production by the millions" or "AI-first" as Tesla or Figure did, and so, seen from the outside, Japan felt a beat behind.
The Hands That Hold the Joints: Reducer Supremacy
Yet the moment you move your gaze from the finished product to the components, the scenery turns completely over. The precision reducer that Part 4 called the "costliest handful," and within it the key component known as the harmonic drive, has had its global market effectively led by Japanese firms for a long time.
As the figure above shows, whether the outer robot is American or Chinese, the moment that robot takes a step, many of the costliest parts turning inside its joints carry the names of Japanese firms. Harmonic Drive Systems turned the component's name into its corporate name; Nabtesco is a strong player in precision reducers of another kind; and without the small toothed devices they make, no humanoid in the world can move with precision.
A Country of Motors and Precision
It is not only the reducer. In the precision motors that turn the joints, Japanese firms including Nidec have built up a long-standing strength, and in the various sensors that detect a robot's posture and force, and in the depth of manufacturing skill that machines all those parts precisely, Japan remains formidable. The flashy AI models may be held by the United States, but a great part of the hardware that turns the AI's commands into actual physical motion stands upon Japan's precision manufacturing.
This is no accident but the natural result of a road Japanese industry has long walked. The tradition of so-called monozukuri, which fixates on the quality of unseen components rather than on eye-catching finished products, together with the depth of supply chains tempered in the automotive and precision-machinery industries, has once again, in the humanoid era, set Japan up as a powerhouse of components.
The Dilemma of the Quiet Powerhouse
Yet there is no guarantee this quiet advantage will last forever. The first threat is China. As we saw in Parts 2 and 4, China is rapidly localizing even reducers, with volume and price as its weapons, and the oligopoly Japan long enjoyed is being eroded just as fast. The second worry is more fundamental: while sitting in the safe seat of a component supplier, is Japan not ceding to the United States the crown of artificial intelligence and the finished product, where the greatest value gathers?
In other words, Japan holds the firm moat of "we make the joints," but the highest tower of the castle that moat surrounds is held by another country. How the country that walked first untangles this dilemma is yet another variable that will shape the terrain of the humanoid industry to come.
From the Country of Parts, to What Comes Next
Japan is the country that walked first, and now a powerhouse of components quietly holding the joints of the world's robots. It may not be the lead of the dazzling stage, but the fact that the hands making the costliest gears that keep that stage turning are still in Japan makes it impossible to see this industry as a simple "United States versus China."
So where, between them, does Korea stand? The stage of the next part is Korea. A country that, like Japan, nurtures component ambitions, yet at the same time owns America's most iconic robot company and into which giants like Samsung and Hyundai have leapt directly. We continue with the story of Korea, which occupies a peculiar position between components and finished products.
- Part 1 · History — From Clockwork Automata to ASIMO and HUBO
- Part 2 · The Giants of Today — Atlas, Optimus, Figure, Unitree
- Part 3 · The Engineering — Locomotion, Actuators, Reducers, AI, Batteries
- Part 4 · The Stock Value Chain — Where the Robot Turns into Money
- Part 5 · United States — The Giant Shaking the Board with Capital and AI
- Part 6 · Japan — The Quiet Powerhouse That Holds the Parts
- Part 7 · Korea
- Part 8 · China
References · Sources
- Materials and reporting on the end of Honda ASIMO development (2018, 2022) and on the robotics of Toyota, Kawasaki and SoftBank.
- Materials on the market for harmonic drive (strain-wave gear) precision reducers and on Harmonic Drive Systems and Nabtesco.
- General materials on the precision-motor and component industries, including Nidec.
- Reporting on Chinese firms' localization of precision reducers.
Image credits
- Honda ASIMO — Kzaral, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.